ZSE Market Commentary 30 May 2024
Zim sees rise in formal employment in Q1; VFEX outpaces ZSE on turnover
HARARE – Zimbabwe recorded an improvement in its national employment rate in the first quarter of this year owing to increased investor participation in the formal economy.
According to the ZimStat first quarter labour force survey, the number of employed persons rose 3.67% to 3.29 million. As a result the employment to population ratio (EPR) improved to 38.2 from 36.7 in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Formal employment numbers increased to 988 596 from 908 742, a growth of 8.79% due to an aggressive push for formalisation by government and new investments particularly in the mining sector.
Informal employment numbers recorded a 2% dip to 1.36 million. This dropped the share of employment for the sector to 41.3% from 43.7% while the formal sector now sits on 30% from 28.6% Agriculture employment also rose but this is due to seasonality of the cropping season while increased poverty pushed many into household employment at 186 995 from 168 953 in the previous quarter.
For Zimbabwe, a large number of its employed persons are in elementary occupations at 27.5% and sales workers at 24%. This also means that a large number earn low wages. According to the survey, 34% earn less than US$90, 23% are in the US$90-181 income band while on the upper end only 4% earn more than US$816.
Meanwhile, Victoria Falls Stock Exchange turnover significant outpaced the local currency stock market on Thursday. Trades in Simbisa, Innscor and Caledonia supported traded value on the VFEX, which totalled US$449 125 in a fairly active session.
Volume was at 1.57 million shares in 51 trades. Seed Co International led the on volume at 493 959 but relatively large parcels were seen in Simbisa, Innscor and First Capital.
Simbisa brought in the most value at US$124 070 while the sell-off in Caledonia continued after 5 347 shares exchanged hands at an unchanged price of US$18. The All Share was down 0.13% to 96.16.
The ZSE on the other hand remained subdued with turnover closing at ZiG380 841, which is just under US$30 000. Volume closed at 703 400 shares in just 162 trades.
The benchmark All Share declined 1.32% to 100.78 weighed down by select heavyweight losses. Hippo was the day’s worst performing after falling 14.98% to 289.05c and Econet lost 11.67% to 159.29c ahead of the release of its February finals.
As a result of these losses, the Top Ten Index was down 2.09% to 101.97 shrugging off Meikles’ 6.83% gain at 279.97c.
The Medium Cap Index gained 0.89% to 100.24 in a relatively mixed session. Zimpapers led the risers following a 17.85% gain to 4.67c and Dairibord put on 14.94% to 65c. ZB Financial Holdings added 5.26% to 200c in the wake of its delayed December finals where the group reported improved earnings. -finx
ZSE and VFEX Take a Breather Amid Fears of Inflationary Pressures in the Short-term
The ZSE took a breather on Thursday, closely reversing prior session’s gains as demand eased amid fears of an increased liquidity level in the economy which could be inflationary in the short-term. The mainstream ZSE All Share Index dwindled -1.33% today to close at 100.78 points, with losses stimulated by sell-offs in market heavies which outweighed a mild growth in medium caps while penny stocks remain constant since the rebasing of indices. Following the introduction of a new currency, the ZiG, which replaced the ZWL, the ZSE changed its functional currency to ZiG, and rebased all indices to 100 on the 8th of April in a bid to effectively reflect the effect of the new currency on financial markets. Likewise, all share prices were also converted to ZiG at a rate of 2,498.65 upon introduction. Since the rebasing of indices, the All Share Index boasts of a 0.8% nominal growth, which converts to 2.8% in US$ terms. On a month-to-date basis, the ZSE is up 2% and 3% in nominal and US$ terms respectively.
The US$ denominated bourse, VFEX, has sustained a zig-zag pattern for over 2-weeks now owing to liquidity constraints as well as policy uncertainties amid heightened involvement of the government in the economy. The mainstream VFEX All Share Index countered prior session’s performance on Thursday, retreating by -0.12% to close at 96.16 points.
The All Share Index was rebased to 100 at the end of 2023 following the addition of six new listings in 2023. As the month draws to an end, the All Share Index has shed off -3.5% since the beginning of May, which compares to a -1.4% loss suffered in April. On a year-to-date basis, VFEX is down -3.8%. An aggregate of US$449,105 exchanged hands in today’s session, up from US$1,127 traded in the prior session.
On the currency markets, the Zimbabwe government introduced a new currency on the 5th of April 2024, backed by gold reserves and foreign currency. The Central Bank also announced new monetary policy measures on the same day, further tightening its stance on money supply while, however, slushing borrowing costs from 130% to 20%.
The new MPS highlighted that the currency auction market has been replaced by the Interbank market, which will be used to liquidate all ZWL balances into Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG), the new currency. Today, the ZiG appreciated by 0.01% against the US$ to close at 13.30. The Central Bank computes the exchange rate by dividing the US$ by gold price per milligram.
An aggregate of 22 counters exchanged hands in today’s session, with 7 sailing stable while 8 heavily weighed on the market. Hippo performed the worst in the session on plunging -14.98% to close at 289.05c, trailed by Econet which extended losses to a 3rd straight session by a further -11.67% to settle at 159.28c. Star Africa fell for a 3rd consecutive session by a further -4.96% to close at 0.75c while Turnall extended prior session’s losses by a further -0.61% to settle at 2.70c. TSL shed off -0.47% to close at 106c, capping off the Top 5 laggards’ pack.
On the upside, 7 counters partially countered the laggards. Zimpapers emerged the top performer in the session on gaining 17.85% to settle at 4.67c, followed by Dairibord which firmed by 14.94% to close at 65c. Meikles extended gains to a 3rd straight session on adding 6.83% to settle at 279.97c while ZBFH went up by 5.26% to close at 200c. EcoCash Holdings partially recouped prior session’s losses on notching 0.25% to settle at 16.85c, capping off the Top 5 risers’ set.
Total turnover rose by 22% from prior session’s record to ZiG0.38 million today against a 180% growth in overall shares traded. Delta led turnover contributors in the session, contributing 40% of the aggregate turnover and was trailed by Hippo, Econet, SeedCo and Meikles in that respective order. Foreign inflows contributed 0.51% to aggregate turnover while outflows held a foothold of 0.62%.
EVENTS
EDGARS Analyst Briefing to be held at the Newlands Country Club, 1 Brompton Road, Newlands, Harare on Friday, 31 May 2024 at 1000 Hours
MASHHOLD 57TH AGM to be held at the Mashonaland Holdings Limited Boardroom, 19th Floor, ZB Life Towers, 77 Jason Moyo Avenue, Harare Wednesday, on 19 June 2024 at 1400 Hours.
ZIMPLOW 74TH AGM to be held at the Zimplow Holdings Ltd Head Office No.10 Harrow Road, Msasa, Harare on 27 June 2024 at 1000 Hours
EQUITY-AXIS